Overview
Recent assessments indicate that the water level in the Caspian Sea has dropped significantly over recent decades, posing challenges for shipping and local industries. Officials from Azerbaijan report that the gradual decline in water depth now appears to be occurring more rapidly than in past years. This reduction is affecting port operations, oil shipments, and the welfare of native marine species, including sturgeon and seals.
The Caspian Sea, recognized as the largest saltwater body on Earth, is bordered by Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan. All of these nations are key producers in the oil and gas sector. Recent figures reveal that the water level has decreased by 0.93 meters (3 feet) over the past five years, by 1.5 meters during the previous decade, and by 2.5 meters throughout the last 30 years. Current estimates point to an annual drop of approximately 20 to 30 centimeters.
Impact on Commerce and Infrastructure
Rauf Hajiyev, Azerbaijan’s Deputy Minister of Ecology, explained that the sea has been gradually becoming shallower for many decades. He noted that recent data shows an acceleration in the decline. According to Hajiyev, the reduced water depth is altering the coastal conditions and disrupting operations that local communities and industries rely on. In April, representatives from Azerbaijan and Russia met for the first time under a collaborative arrangement to study the effects and to plan a remote monitoring program scheduled to be introduced in September. Despite strained political ties between the two nations, discussions continue, with both sides working to devise a system for tracking the ongoing changes and setting up appropriate responses.
Russian experts tend to attribute the water level reduction primarily to climate change, whereas Azerbaijani authorities point to the construction of dams along the Volga River—a river that contributes nearly 80 percent of the inflow into the Caspian Sea—as a significant factor. This ongoing decline has far-reaching impacts. For example, it affects approximately 4 million people living along the Azerbaijani coast and around 15 million residents throughout the entire Caspian region.
In the capital city of Baku, ships have encountered greater difficulties when attempting to enter or maneuver within the port. This challenge has led to a reduction in cargo capacity and a rise in shipping expenses. At the Dubendi oil terminal—the largest in Azerbaijani waters—a noticeable drop in the transportation of oil and related products has been recorded. During the first half of 2025, the terminal managed 810,000 tons compared to 880,000 tons during the corresponding period of the previous year. Eldar Salakhov, director of the Baku International Sea Port, linked these setbacks directly to the lower water levels, which now necessitate extensive dredging operations. In the year 2024, more than 250,000 cubic meters of material were removed from the docks at Dubendi. This work was designed to allow even the largest tankers access without restrictions. In addition, in April, the Baku Shipyard completed a new dredging vessel named Engineer Soltan Kazimov. This modern vessel is built to deepen channels to 18 meters so that port capacity can be maintained without interruption.
Threats to Marine Life
The receding waters have serious implications for the local environment. As shorelines withdraw, wetlands, lagoons, and reed beds suffer a severe loss. These habitats, which once provided refuge for a variety of species, are now at risk. The decline heavily impacts sturgeon, a fish species valued for its caviar, which has long been a critical part of the regional economy. These fish are now losing nearly 45 percent of their traditional summer and autumn habitat. Furthermore, their connections to historical spawning rivers are being disrupted, placing them in a dangerous position regarding survival.
Caspian seals are experiencing similar difficulties as the sea contracts. The northern areas of the Caspian, known for seasonal ice fields that serve as breeding grounds, are shrinking rapidly. Hajiyev commented that a drop of 5 meters in the water level might eliminate as many as 81 percent of available breeding sites for these seals, and a further drop of 10 meters could almost completely remove any adequate areas for reproduction.
Looking Ahead
The ongoing water decline in the Caspian Sea poses a significant challenge to coastal communities, local industries, and wildlife. Collaborative efforts between the nations bordering the sea, along with increased investment in adaptation measures such as dredging, are being discussed to mitigate the economic and environmental impacts. Officials remain committed to carefully monitoring the situation and planning strategies to manage its effects on shipping, local livelihoods, and the ecosystems that depend on this vast saline water body. While these efforts are still in the early stages, they highlight the urgency with which regional partners are addressing issues that could reshape the future of the Caspian Sea area.
